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Physics × Computation × Data × Uncertainty

PhyAnalytics

Physics-Informed Analytics for Physical Systems

Physical modelling, scientific computing and uncertainty-aware analytics for complex physical systems.

Measured solar array power on 25 December 2012 lies far below the model's 95 % predictive band in the morning, with flagged points in copper, and rejoins the band after midday.
CASE / 001Measured output of a 1 kW solar array (white) against a calibrated physical model with its 95 % predictive interval (blue). The morning shortfall on a sub-zero day falls outside the model's uncertainty and is flagged (copper). Public NREL data. Read the case study

Quantitative foundation

Four disciplines, one analysis

01

Physics

Governing principles, conservation laws and domain constraints that any credible model must respect.

02

Computation

Numerical methods, simulation and scientific computing, with verified accuracy.

03

Data

Inference from measurements, observations and computational results.

04

Uncertainty

Confidence, sensitivity, limitations and risk, stated alongside every result.

A quantitative result is incomplete without an understanding of its uncertainty.

Core capabilities

Physics-informed analytics

All seven capability areas
  1. 01 /

    Model Calibration

    Infer uncertain model parameters from observations.

  2. 02 /

    Surrogate Modelling

    Construct efficient approximations of computationally expensive models.

  3. 03 /

    Data Assimilation

    Combine observations with physical and computational models.

  4. 04 /

    Anomaly Detection

    Identify behaviour inconsistent with expected physical or statistical patterns.

  5. 05 /

    Experimental Design

    Use quantitative information to guide measurement and experimentation.

  6. 06 /

    Uncertainty Quantification

    Characterise confidence, sensitivity and uncertainty in quantitative results.

  7. 07 /

    Risk-Informed Decisions

    Connect quantitative predictions and uncertainty with decision-making.

Selected work

Evidence, not claims

Daily ratio of measured to expected energy through 2012. Most days sit at 1.0 inside a narrow band; a small number of days, mostly in winter and early July, fall well below it.
CASE / 001Every day of 2012: measured energy divided by the model's expectation. Days below the 99 % band are marked in copper.

CASE / 001

Detecting under-performance in a solar array with a calibrated physical model

A year of measured output from a 1 kW heterojunction silicon array, compared interval by interval with a Bayesian-calibrated physical model. Faults are flagged only when they fall outside the model's own predictive uncertainty.

Data
11,177 fifteen-minute intervals, 361 days
Calibrated on
March–April only
Temperature coefficient
-0.299 %/°C [-0.317, -0.283]
Days lost to major faults
5 with less than half the expected energy

NOTE / 001

Reporting a result with its uncertainty

Why a measured value without an interval is incomplete, and how to propagate input uncertainty through a model, using a pendulum measurement of g as the worked example.

Applications

Where the methods apply

Applications

Physical Systems

Physics-informed modelling and quantitative analysis of real systems: thermal, mechanical, electrical and nuclear.

Scientific Research

Numerical and computational investigation of physical problems, with calibrated models and stated uncertainty.

Physical Industry

Energy, water, mining and power grids: systems where physical understanding and reliability matter.

Education and Assessment

Physics assessment with worked solutions and topic-level performance analysis.

Explore assessment

About

How PhyAnalytics works

Each problem is approached the same way: understand the physical system, formulate a model, compute it accurately, confront it with data, quantify what remains uncertain, and only then interpret.

Problem → Model → Computation → Data → Uncertainty → Interpretation

About PhyAnalytics